Changing marine fuel legislation – a curse or blessing for refineries?

20 Jun

by György Halász

The sulphur content of marine fuel will be decreased from 3.5% to 0.5% in 2020. The regulatory change – easily defendable on the ground of environmental aspects – directly affects ship owners, ship builders, marine transportation fuel traders, wholesalers and refiners as well. In what follows, the history of marine fuel legislation and the expected effects of the regulatory change will be discussed.

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Top five charts of the week

12 Mar

The top 5 charts of the week are chosen by our guest blogger Mihály Tatár and cover the recent jump in Italian long-term bond yields, the Trump effect in Central and Eastern European yields, the critical and worsening situation in Turkey, why we call copper “dr Copper” and why Facebook equity price downturns signal a big trouble… Click on the graphs to make them bigger.


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Why has digital innovation not created business value so far?

10 Dec

by Agnes Horvath

Once computers were large machines operated by technical staff working in specially constructed centers. Today, computers are used by everybody and microprocessors have become ubiquitous, present on desktops, automobiles all through to greeting cards.

Still, as Robert Solow from MIT put it: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics”. It seems that the digital revolution does not seem to deliver in terms of increased productivity performances. What we see is that businesses had been making massive capital investments in IT, but at the very same time macro-level productivity growth was stagnant or even declining in most of the advanced countries – a concept economists define as the ‘productivity puzzle’.

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Trump and the global cooling

10 Nov

by Agnes Horvath and Ana Kecman


It has been only a week ago that the ratification of the Paris Agreement got into the headlines and environmentalists all over the world could celebrate a clear turning point in global climate policy. While there were countries that put the emission of greenhouse gases on their agenda in the past, without a global response these individual efforts were deemed to fail. Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere long enough to become well mixed and for this reason the amount that is measured in the atmosphere is roughly the same all over the world, regardless of the source of the emissions. Moreover, the most important achievement of the Paris Agreement was that the two largest polluters of the world, China and the US – who account for more than 40% of total carbon dioxide emissions – also ratified the agreement. Still, the sense of relief may be short-lived.

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London calling – how NIMBY attitude might have lead to Brexit

12 Oct

The “city trilemma” may separate the winners and loser of globalization and could also partially explain Brexit voting patterns…

By Csaba Pogonyi and Istvan Zsoldos Read more »

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Oil: Not yesterday’s fuel – just yet?

10 May

  • The new hype is again to say the end of the oil age is near
  • In the long run, this will happen…
  • …but before that some good years for oil are likely
  • Just as high prices reduced the likely future demand for oil, low prices will probably prolong its use

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Does the IEA’s new World Energy Outlook miss the global transition?

26 Nov

The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables will likely be faster than the International Energy Agency predicts in its recent World Energy Outlook. We are at a point when renewables are getting cheaper than fossil fuels in many areas, and that means a whole different game. Read more »

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The Volkswagen-scandal and its effect on diesel markets

2 Nov

Global dieselization will not end because of the scandal, but probably less people will buy diesel cars in Europe. The following post is our early take on the potential results, focusing on the economic and energy market effects. Read more »

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LNG ante portas: Growing LNG penetration in Europe

20 Oct

In the previous post we highlighted that a significant oversupply is building up in international LNG markets, and suppliers have to find new markets as Asia seems to get satiated with LNG. In the longer run, we expect new markets to emerge while the deployment of LNG in transportation will become more widespread. However, in the next few years LNG can be sold only at those markets where infrastructure has already been installed to regasify and distribute LNG to consumers. Therefore, many free LNG cargos will head towards the European markets. In this post we examine to what extent LNG will be able to penetrate the competitive European gas markets and how market conditions will change as a result of the intensified international competition. Read more »

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Head hunting for LNG traders is on

5 Oct

The birth of liquid international LNG markets

In the second post of our LNG series we focus on the restructuring of LNG markets and how they transform from a rigid, long-term structure dominated by a few incumbents into a flexible and vivid market place.

This restructuring opens doors for new entrants. There will be new buyers without rigid long-term commitments and new traders with less market power. They will distribute LNG towards new markets, even to Hungary. Following our slightly technical post today, next week we will continue our LNG series with focusing on how LNG will penetrate the European markets. Read more »

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