Market update: Optimistic Black Friday trading, EURUSD over 1.19 as SPD is suddenly interested

27 Nov

by Mihály Tatár

 

Good Morning!

 

  • Western stock markets finished the week in a quiet, optimistic Black Friday trading (SPX +0.21%, a new record high if its worth writing down, DAX +0.39%, MIB +0.08%), while later Asian investors took profit on the Chinese central bank’s tough deleverage talk (Nikkei -0.31%, Shanghai -1.42%). The most active currency has been the Euro – it surged to 1.1930 against the Dollar, after the German Social Democrats U-turned regarding a possible coalition with Merkel from ’never’ to ’50%’. (As predicted, with her fallen popularity,  Merkel is in no position to risk fresh elections – and it says something about the beaten SPD’s greediness when CDU officials have to warn them through the media that ’a party with 20 percent can’t get 100 percent’.) Oil traded sideways after last week’s rally (WTI 58.70, Brent 63.80 USD), with all eyes on the Nov 30 OPEC meeting. (Some analysts are wondering if the organization can meet the high market expectations for production cuts, resulting in a ’buy the rumour, sell the news’ price action – especially with the ongoing rumours that the detained Saudi princes and billioners are being tortured by US mercenaries, which probably will not help the atmosphere of the negotations. However, in my personal view, the rise in prices is more about global  growth than just the next OPEC meeting).

 

  • Pakistan’s international image deteriorated further in the last few days, after violent street protests killed 8 and injured 300  (Islamists demanded, successfully, the ousting of the Law Minister, who tried to accomodate the minority Ahmadiyya Muslim sect). The leadership vacuum in the country was also evident from the release of Islamist leader Hafiz Saeed – he is accused of being the mastermind of the bloody 2008 terror attack in Mumbai -, enraging the US and India, who now talk about ’consequences’. (The Karachi stock exchange lost another 2% last week, dropping 25% since May).

 

Have  a nice week,

Mihály

 

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