Market update: Stocks bounce modestly, Spotify becomes a public company, Trump to pull out from Syria

4 Apr

by Mihály Tatár

 

Good Morning!

 

  • Stock markets finished a mixed session, with US stocks modestly bouncing from the key January lows (SPX +1.26%, Nasdaq +1.04%, DAX -0.78%, Nikkei +0.14%, Shanghai +0.90%, US 10Y yield 2.78%), and tech stocks having a first non-losing day (Facebook +0.50% on Zuckerberg’s quite naive proposal to create an independent ’user’s supreme court’ over Facebook policies – I guess he didn’t do the math that then Chinese government and Islamic values would dominate the social network soon  -, Amazon +1.50% on a Bloomberg report that the White House has no immediate plans against the delivery giant – or at least those who picked up the phone to the news agency had not yet received an order from Trump). With the growing realization that the much-talked-about trade war is not really a war – China’s response has been symbolic, as predicted here, and countries from Canada to Mexico are bending to the US pressure so fast that the angry Chinese government newspaper called Canada ’a US economic colony’ – the Dollar strengthened (EURUSD 1.2260 – the pair failed to get above the ECB’s magic 1.25 level for four times now, and many noted the first principle of trading’s rocket science – ’if something can not go up, it goes down’, USDHUF 254, USDPLN 3.42, USDTRY 3.99). Trading in oil has been uneventful (WTI 63.30, Brent 68 USD), but oil shares rallied in the more positive mood (Exxon +2.5%,  with the company doubling the amount of crude it expects to pump from recent discoveries near Guyana, Halliburton +1.60%, Total +1.3%, Shell +0.40%).

 

  • In the latest sign that traditional banking is failing, Spotify successfully became a public company yesterday (with a market value of 27 billion USD, or the eight-biggest tech company debut), without tapping any investment bank as underwriter (!), saving tens of millions of Dollars in fees and exciting other successful startups.

 

  • Making affected countries from Arab nations to France and Israel visibly desperate, Trump reiterated on Tuesday that the US will leave Syria ’as soon as possible’, so that from now ’other countries will have to take care of  it’, and instead, he will send the US army to protect the US borders from Southern immigration. This is consistent to what Trump has been saying  since 2015, but the consequences won’t be pretty (Israel woved to ’stop Iran’ if it seizes post-war Syria, for example, and then there is the Turkey-Kurds war that may see new players), and showing how hard it is to pull this retreat off, US reinforcements arrive steadily in Manbij these days to prepare for a potential clash with Turkish-led militias (who are chasing Kurdish fighter groups).

 

Have a nice day,

Mihály

 

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