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Changing marine fuel legislation – a curse or blessing for refineries?

20 Jun

by György Halász

The sulphur content of marine fuel will be decreased from 3.5% to 0.5% in 2020. The regulatory change – easily defendable on the ground of environmental aspects – directly affects ship owners, ship builders, marine transportation fuel traders, wholesalers and refiners as well. In what follows, the history of marine fuel legislation and the expected effects of the regulatory change will be discussed.

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Trump and the global cooling

10 Nov

by Agnes Horvath and Ana Kecman

 

It has been only a week ago that the ratification of the Paris Agreement got into the headlines and environmentalists all over the world could celebrate a clear turning point in global climate policy. While there were countries that put the emission of greenhouse gases on their agenda in the past, without a global response these individual efforts were deemed to fail. Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere long enough to become well mixed and for this reason the amount that is measured in the atmosphere is roughly the same all over the world, regardless of the source of the emissions. Moreover, the most important achievement of the Paris Agreement was that the two largest polluters of the world, China and the US – who account for more than 40% of total carbon dioxide emissions – also ratified the agreement. Still, the sense of relief may be short-lived.

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Oil: Not yesterday’s fuel – just yet?

10 May

  • The new hype is again to say the end of the oil age is near
  • In the long run, this will happen…
  • …but before that some good years for oil are likely
  • Just as high prices reduced the likely future demand for oil, low prices will probably prolong its use

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Does the IEA’s new World Energy Outlook miss the global transition?

26 Nov

The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables will likely be faster than the International Energy Agency predicts in its recent World Energy Outlook. We are at a point when renewables are getting cheaper than fossil fuels in many areas, and that means a whole different game. […]

The Volkswagen-scandal and its effect on diesel markets

2 Nov

Global dieselization will not end because of the scandal, but probably less people will buy diesel cars in Europe. The following post is our early take on the potential results, focusing on the economic and energy market effects. […]

LNG ante portas: Growing LNG penetration in Europe

20 Oct

In the previous post we highlighted that a significant oversupply is building up in international LNG markets, and suppliers have to find new markets as Asia seems to get satiated with LNG. In the longer run, we expect new markets to emerge while the deployment of LNG in transportation will become more widespread. However, in the next few years LNG can be sold only at those markets where infrastructure has already been installed to regasify and distribute LNG to consumers. Therefore, many free LNG cargos will head towards the European markets. In this post we examine to what extent LNG will be able to penetrate the competitive European gas markets and how market conditions will change as a result of the intensified international competition. […]

Head hunting for LNG traders is on

5 Oct

The birth of liquid international LNG markets

In the second post of our LNG series we focus on the restructuring of LNG markets and how they transform from a rigid, long-term structure dominated by a few incumbents into a flexible and vivid market place.

This restructuring opens doors for new entrants. There will be new buyers without rigid long-term commitments and new traders with less market power. They will distribute LNG towards new markets, even to Hungary. Following our slightly technical post today, next week we will continue our LNG series with focusing on how LNG will penetrate the European markets. […]

Oil prices: The darkest hour before dawn?

28 Sep

Market players are losing patience with expecting a recovery of oil prices. But an increase from current levels is still likely in a few years, maybe as soon as 2016. […]

Prepare for the global gas tsunami

23 Sep

Global gas markets will be transformed in the next years, and this will affect Europe as well. This transformation will start on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and this post focuses on how the market has functioned so far and what events might turn it upside down. […]

This is actually a better future than we were promised

30 Jul

On future’s mysterious ways… […]