Tag Archives: geopolitics

The Great End-Game with Iran: Historical reflexes versus fundamentals

2 Oct

If a Martian landed on Earth, it would be greatly surprised that the US is an ally of Saudi Arabia and an enemy of Iran. History is the explanation, but fundamentals have a tendency to reassert themselves in the long run…


Syria’s globalized civil war

4 Jul


Every country has a stake in the conflict one way or another. But that won’t stop the bitter war of attrition from grinding on. 


Iran: Saber-rattling and strait-talking

11 Dec

Iran graph EN.png

You may end up doing strange things when you feel cornered. Iran, for example, is even allegedly considering creating a huge oil spill, which would block the Strait of Hormuz and force the West to temporarily suspend sanctions during the clean-up. Let’s hope things don’t go so far: below we summarize possible scenarios for Iran.  […]

Oil can(’t) buy me love?

30 Oct


Thanks to their high per capita oil revenues, certain Middle Eastern countries were able to evade the Arab Spring through higher social spending – so far, that is. But with both break-even oil prices and geopolitical tensions on the rise, simply buying the silence of their citizens with generous hand-outs won’t work on the long run. The same holds true for Russia, where the petrodollar buffer will run out over the next 3-4 years.