Barrelperday

Market players are losing patience with expecting a recovery of oil prices. But an increase from current levels is still likely in a few years, maybe as soon as 2016.

If a Martian landed on Earth, it would be greatly surprised that the US is an ally of Saudi Arabia and an enemy of Iran. History is the explanation, but fundamentals have a tendency to reassert themselves in the long run…

Every country has a stake in the conflict one way or another. But that won’t stop the bitter war of attrition from grinding on. 

We could well see oil prices spike to new records. But the average price in the next decade is likely to be lower than in recent years.

…which would also bring down OPEC

You may end up doing strange things when you feel cornered. Iran, for example, is even allegedly considering creating a huge oil spill, which would block the Strait of Hormuz and force the West to temporarily suspend sanctions during the clean-up. Let’s hope things don’t go so far: below we summarize possible scenarios for Iran. 

Thanks to their high per capita oil revenues, certain Middle Eastern countries were able to evade the Arab Spring through higher social spending – so far, that is. But with both break-even oil prices and geopolitical tensions on the rise, simply buying the silence of their citizens with generous hand-outs won’t work on the long […]